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Lessons 3: Stacking the Deck

Having knowledge of the past provides an advantage in predicting the location of future natural disasters. For example, hurricanes commonly occur along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. A hurricane is unlikely to reach inland states and thus the probability of a hurricane hitting landlocked areas is very low. In this simulation, the type of natural disaster and severity are given; it’s your job to predict the location of the natural disaster.

Doing the science

  1. Start the Trouble Incorporated Simulation by clicking on the "Sim" tab.
  2. Read the instructions provided.
  3. Click on the "Click Here" button under the "Where" category.
  4. Choose a city (Orlando, New York, Los Angeles, Dallas, or Chicago) to predict the location of the disaster by clicking on the yellow icon.
  5. Click on the golden "Spin" button to start the machine.
  6. In Table 1 below, record the predictions in each category that you got correct with a "c", incorrect with an "x."
  7. Repeat steps 3 – 6 nine more times.

Table 1.













Do You Understand?

  1. Out of 10 spins, how many correct predictions did you make?

  2. Based on the number of possible locations, what are the odds of you correctly predicting the location of the natural disaster? Please explain your response.

  3. Out of all three games, in which one did you make the most correct predictions? Why do you think this is?