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Lessons 2: Narrowing Your Odds

The odds of predicting the type of natural disaster that will occur are rare, but predicting the severity can be even harder. If you eliminate determining the severity, will your likelihood of correctly predicting the type and location of a natural disasters increase? Spin the slots to test your luck!

Doing the science

  1. Start the Trouble Incorporated Simulation by clicking on the "Sim" tab.
  2. Read the instructions provided.
  3. Click on the "Click Here" button under the "Event" category.
  4. Choose a natural disaster (bridge collapse, earthquake, flood, hurricane, or tornado) to predict the disaster by clicking on the yellow icon.
  5. Click on the "Click Here" button under the "Where" category.
  6. Choose a city (Orlando, New York, Los Angeles, Dallas, or Chicago) to predict the location of the disaster by clicking on the yellow icon.
  7. Click on the golden "Spin" button to start the machine.
  8. In Table 1 below, record the predictions in each category that you got correct with a check mark "c", incorrect with an "x."
  9. Repeat steps 3 – 8 nine more times.

Table 1.

Spin

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Event

Where

Do You Understand?

  1. Discuss your ability to correctly predict the outcome of each spin. Suggest a reason for your ability to correctly/incorrectly predict the spin outcomes.


  2. Was there a category (Event or Where) that you predicted the spin outcome correctly more often than the other categories? If so, state a reason for your improved prediction ability in this category.


  3. What is the probability of getting both your Event and Where predictions correct on each spin?